Leading climate scientist James Hansen has predicted that 2026 will become the hottest year ever recorded, driven by an imminent El Niño phase set to begin in the second half of this year. The forecast marks a dramatic escalation from 2024, which currently holds the record for the highest global average temperature.
“The coming El Niño will likely push global temperatures well beyond what we saw in 2024,” said Hansen, former director of NASA’s Goddard Institute for Space Studies. “This is not a remote possibility—it is the most probable outcome given current ocean and atmospheric conditions.”
An El Niño event typically warms the Pacific Ocean and disrupts weather patterns, leading to extreme heat, droughts, and floods across continents. Hansen’s team analyzed sea surface temperatures and climate model runs to conclude that 2026 will surpass the 1.5°C threshold above pre-industrial levels, a key benchmark of the Paris Agreement.
Background
The prediction comes amid a string of record-breaking years. 2023 tied with 2020 as the warmest on record until 2024 set a new high. Hansen warns that the rapid warming is accelerating, not slowing.
El Niño events have historically amplified global temperatures. The 2015–2016 El Niño contributed to the previous record, and scientists note that even a moderate El Niño superimposed on long-term warming can produce unprecedented extremes.
“We are entering uncharted territory,” said Dr. Sarah Park, a climate impact researcher at the University of Melbourne. “The combination of greenhouse gas accumulation and a natural El Niño cycle creates a perfect storm for heat records.”
What This Means
If Hansen’s forecast holds, 2026 will bring more intense heatwaves, wildfires, and crop failures. Coastal communities face accelerated sea-level rise due to thermal expansion. Public health systems may be strained by heat-related illnesses.
The forecast also pressures world leaders to accelerate emissions cuts. “We can’t afford to wait for another record to act,” said Dr. Ana Torres, policy adviser at the Climate Action Tracker. “Every fraction of a degree matters for people and ecosystems.”
For the general public, the prediction underscores the need for personal preparedness—from installing cooling systems to supporting climate-resilient infrastructure. Governments must update disaster risk plans based on this elevated threat level.
Hansen emphasizes that while El Niño is natural, its impacts are magnified by human-caused warming. “The underlying trend is clear,” he said. “We have to cut emissions now, not in 2030.”
Stay tuned for updates as scientists monitor ocean conditions in real time. Skip to background or learn what this means for you.